Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of West Java Water Sustainability Index – A case study on Citarum catchment in Indonesia

Water sustainability indices have been recently used to measure the sustainability of water resources within a catchment. Developing a sustainability index involves various steps, some of which have uncertainties associated with them. For the recently developed West Java Water Sustainability Index (WJWSI), three sources of uncertainties were identified, namely uncertainties in the thresholds of non-categorical indicators and sub-indicators, in the weighting schemes, and in the aggregation methods. This paper presents the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of WJWSI, based on the application of WJWSI to Citarum catchment in West Java, Indonesia. The results of the uncertainty analysis, measured by the coefficient of variation of the thresholds and the sub-indices, indicates that minimum thresholds of Land Use Changes, Coverage, Education, Poverty, Health Impact and Sanitation, and the maximum threshold of Water Quality have higher variation when compared to variation of the other thresholds. The results of the sensitivity analysis, measured by the correlation coefficients between the final index and the thresholds, indicate that changes in the thresholds of WJWSI indicators have not significantly affected the sub-index values of most indicators and sub-indicators. The sensitivity analysis also concluded that either the equal or non-equal weighting scheme can be used for future use of the aggregation of WJWSI indicators and sub-indicators, as changes from equal to non-equal weighting scheme did not significantly affect the final index. However, it was found that the final index values were most sensitive to the aggregation method used (i.e. arithmetic and geometric methods), shown by the significant changes in the final index value when the aggregation method was changed from arithmetic to geometric. The uncertainty and sensitivity analysis presented in this study will not just assist in the efficient use of the WJWSI, but will also help undertake similar analysis for other indices.     

Analysis of growth during phototropic curvature of cress hypocotyls

Abstract. Growth rates throughout an organ curving phototropically under continuous, unilateral while light were monitored by lime-lapse photography of cress hypocotyls marked into 1 mm sections by two rows of ion-exchange beads. Curvature resulted from an integrated sequence of changes in growth rate on each side of the organ, but the actual patterns of change and, therefore rales of curvature, differed within even this one species, depending upon the immediate pretreatment of the seedlings. Transference of seedlings from darkness to unilateral irradiation gave immediate growth inhibition on both sides of the organ. Curvature resulted from differential recovery of growth rate, being seen first on the shaded side, most prominently in the apical regions; only 2h after initial exposure to light did growth recover on the lit (lower) side. On the other hand, transfer of seedlings from omnilateral to unilateral irradiation of the same intensity resulted in simultaneous growth inhibition on the irradiated side and stimulated growth on the shaded side: this growth stimulation of the shaded side was greater than occurred in totally darkened control plants.     

Multiple origins of Southern Hemisphere Anemone (Ranunculaceae) based on plastid and nuclear sequence data

 Using two molecular data sets, the plastid atpB-rbcL intergenic spacer region and the nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacer regions (ITS), the taxonomic affinities of two newly available Anemone species from the Southern Hemisphere were tested. From previous work based on morphology and geographic distribution, it was assumed that A. tenuicaulis from New Zealand was most closely related to the Tasmanian A. crassifolia, whereas the affinity of A. antucensis from Chile and Argentina was regarded as uncertain. Analyses of molecular sequence data from these and 18 other species of Anemone s.lat. (with Clematis as outgroup) result in trees largely congruent with past analyses based on morphology and plastid restriction site data. They strongly support A. richardsonii and A. canadensis (with boreal distributions in the Northern Hemisphere) as paraphyletic to a well supported Southern Hemisphere clade consisting of A. antucensis and A. tenuicaulis. This group of four species is part of an otherwise predominantly Northern Hemisphere assemblage (subgenus Anemonidium s.lat., chromosome base number x=7), including A. narcissiflora, A. obtusiloba, A. keiskeana and A. (=Hepatica) americana. All other austral species included in the present sampling, A. crassifolia (Tasmania), A. knowltonia (=Knowltonia capensis), and A. caffra (both South African), form a separate clade, sister to A. (=Pulsatilla) occidentalis and other Northern Hemisphere anemones (subgenus Anemone s.lat., x=8). Possible phytogeographical links of the Southern Hemisphere species are discussed. Received April 23, 2001 Accepted October 4, 2001     

A novel galactosyl-binding lectin from the plasma of the blood clam,Anadara granosa (L) and a study of its combining site

Control Analysis has been carried out in the first steps of a rat liver glycolytic system. Attention has been focused on the effect of several glucose concentrations on the control, particularly regarding the role of glucokinase. From kinetic studies of the whole metabolic system we have obtained information on the flux variation under different glucose concentrations. This information together with the kinetics of glucokinase has allowed us to calculate Flux Control and Elasticity Coefficients for glucokinase and the Response Coefficient of the system with respect to glucose. The changes in of the value of Flux Control Coefficients demonstrates that in conditions of low glucose concentration, glucokinase is the main enzyme in controlling the flux through the pathway, but at high glucose concentration the control moves to phosphofructokinase. Next, we have compared our results with those obtained with the shortening and titration method, previously described (Torres, N.V., Mateo, F., Mélendez-Hevia, E. and Kacser, H., (1986) Biochem. J. 234, 169–174; Torres, N.V. and Meléndez-Hevia, E. 1991. Molec. Cell. Biochem. 101, 1–10). Furthermore, from knowledge of the enzyme kinetics of the system we have been able to build a model of the pathway that allows us computer similation of its behavior and calculation of the Flux Control Coefficient profile at different glucose concentrations. By the three methods the results correlate, supporting the use of the pathway substrate as external modulator of the metabolic system as a tool for practical application of Control Analysis.     

Bird sensitivity to disturbance as an indicator of forest patch conditions: An issue in environmental assessments

An Environmental Assessment (EA) is one of the steps within the Environmental Impact Assessment process. Birds are often used in EA to help decision makers evaluate potential human impacts from proposed development activities. A “sensitivity to human disturbance” index, created by Parker III et al. (1996) for all Neotropical species, is commonly considered an ecological indicator. However, this parameter was created subjectively and, for most species, there have been no rigorous field test to validate its effectiveness as such. Therefore, in this study, we aim to: (1) evaluate if, at the local scale, birds from forest patches in a human-modified landscape (HML) may differ in sensitivity from Parker's sensitivity classification; (2) evaluate the effectiveness of the species richness value at each sensitivity level as an ecological indicator; (3) gather information on how often and in which manner Parker's classification has been used in EA. To do so, bird sampling was performed in eight forest patches in a HML over one year. Then, we created a local sensitivity to disturbance using information about threat, endemism, spatial distribution and relative abundance of all species in the study area. We found that 37% of the forest birds showed different local sensitivity levels when compared with Parker's classification. Our results show that only the richness of high-sensitivity species from our local classification fitted the ecological indicator assumptions helping the environmental conditions evaluation of the studied patches. We conclude that species richness of each Parker's bird sensitivity levels do not necessarily perform as an ecological indicator at the local scale, and particularly in HML. Nevertheless, Parker's Neotropical bird sensitivity classification was used in 50% of EA we reviewed. In these, 76% assumed that it was an accurate ecological indicator of the local forest conditions for birds. The lack of clear criteria used in Parker's classification allows diverse interpretations by ornithologists, and there is no agreement about the ecological meaning of each sensitivity level and what environmental conditions each level may indicate of. Therefore, the use of Parker's classification in EA may jeopardize accurate interpretations of proposed anthropogenic impacts. Furthermore, because a bird species’ sensitivity often varies between locations, we argue that Parker's generalized classification of bird sensitivity should not be used as an indicator of forest environmental conditions in EA throughout HMLs in Neotropics. Rather, local bird ecological indices should be explored, otherwise, erroneous predictions of the anthropogenic impacts will continue to be common.     

A novel approach for assessing factors affecting biodiversity based on networks analysis

We propose in this work a novel approach aiming at assessing cause and effect relationships between variables that can affect target biodiversity issues. These cause–effect relations are used to build a network whose nodes represent variables linked by directed arcs. The arcs have associated a value that represents trends of cause–effect relations. An important novelty of this approach is the use of product and addition operations between trends of cause–effect relations for assessing factors that can affect target variables. For the analysis of the network we use the concept of paths. Paths are defined as sequences of cause–effect relations from source variables to target variables. For example, the path from population increment that causes effects on the increment of transport routes, which in turn causes effects on the loss of vegetation cover. This approach was applied to the assessment of vegetation cover in the Morelos State, México during the period 2000–2010. The results show a promising practical alternative to assess the potential effects on biodiversity issues based on the analysis of the paths represented in the network.     

Quelques données ultrastructurales sur un myoépithélium: le pharynx d'un Bryozoaire

Résumé L'épithélium pharyngien d'Alcyonidium polyoum possède des cellules pourvues d'une très grande vacuole. L'incompressibilité du liquide vacuolaire permet un élargissement brusque de l'organe lors de la contraction du manchon musculaire strié qui enserre cette vacuole. Les fibres musculaires sont insérées sur le plasmalemme apical par des filaments unitifs. Le point d'attache est relié à la lame amorphe du cell-coat qui entoure les microvillosités par des fibrilles, réalisant probablement une liaison mécamique plus efficace. Le reticulum sarcoplasmique porte des ribosomes. Le cytoplasme apical renferme des vésicules de diverses catégories.

---

Some ultrastructural data about a myoepithelium: The pharynx of a bryozoan

Summary Pharyngeal cells of Alcyonidium polyoum (Bryozoa) are provided with very large vacuoles. Each vacuole is enveloped by a thin layer of striated muscle, whose contraction enlarges the organ. Filaments join the muscular elements to the apical plasmalemma. This point of muscular insertion is connected by fibrils with the amorphic lamina of cell-coat which surrounds the microvilli. Ribosomes are often found on dyads. Various vesicles are located in the apical cytoplasm.

     

Familial breast/ovarian cancer and BRCA1/2 genetic screening: the role of immunohistochemistry as an additional method in the selection of patients.

Only 20-25% of families screened for BRCA1/2 mutations are found positive. Because only a positive result is informative, we studied the role of BRCA1/2 immunohistochemistry as an additional method for patient selection. From 53 high-risk-affected probands, 18 (34%) had available paraffin blocks of their tumors and were selected for this study. Mutation screening was done by conformation-sensitive gel electrophoresis and multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification. For immunohistochemistry, 21 neoplastic specimens (15 breast carcinomas, 5 ovary neoplasms, and 1 rectal adenocarcinoma) were analyzed with BRCA1 (monoclonal antibody, Ab-1, oncogene) and BRCA2 (polyclonal antibody, Ab-2, oncogene) antibodies. Absence of the BRCA1 protein was confirmed in negative tumors by Western blotting. Seven patients were positive for BRCA1/2 mutations: 5 for BRCA1 and 2 for BRCA2. Four out of five positive patients had tumors negative for BRCA1 immunostaining, and the remaining 13 BRCA1-negative patients had positive BRCA1 immunostaining in all tumor samples. Sensitivity to predict for BRCA1 mutation carriers was 80%, and specificity was 100%, with a positive predictive value of 100% and a negative predictive value of 93%. This correlation was statistically significant (p=0.001). No correlation was observed for BRCA2. If larger studies confirm these results, high-risk patients with BRCA1-negative tumors should be screened first for this gene.     

Low serum interleukin-6 levels as a predictive marker of recurrence in patients with hepatitis B virus related hepatocellular carcinoma who underwent curative treatment

BackgroundWe aimed to investigate the use of novel serum biomarkers for predicting the recurrence and survival of patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after hepatic resection or radiofrequency ablation (RFA).MethodsOne hundred and five patients with HBV-related HCC, who fulfilled the Milan criteria without vascular invasion and underwent hepatic resection or RFA, were followed-up for a median duration of 52 months. Pretreatment serum concentrations of 16 cytokines including interleukin-6 (IL-6) were measured by using a Luminex 200 system. The measured serum cytokines and several clinical factors were analyzed retrospectively.ResultsUnivariate analysis showed that patients with lower pretreatment serum levels of IL-10, IL-6, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1, and tumor necrosis factor-α had significantly shorter disease-free survival (DFS) than those with higher levels. Multivariate analysis revealed that a low serum IL-6 level (⩽33.00 pg/mL; hazard ratio [HR] = 5.39; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.27–22.93; P = 0.022), low platelet count (<100 × 10⁹/L; HR = 2.23; 95% CI = 1.28–3.89; P = 0.005), and low serum albumin level (⩽3.5 g/L; HR = 2.26; 95% CI = 1.28–3.97; P = 0.005) had a negative prognostic impact on DFS. In the analysis for overall survival, a low serum platelet level (<100 × 10⁹/L; HR = 2.80; 95% CI = 1.31–5.99; P = 0.008) and multiple tumor (⩾2; HR = 4.05; 95% CI = 1.56–10.48; P = 0.004) showed a negative prognostic impact on the overall survival.ConclusionA low serum IL-6 level is, in addition to low platelet count and low serum albumin level, an independent prognostic factor for DFS in patients with HBV-related early HCC who underwent hepatic resection or RFA with curative intention.     

The total burden of rare,non-synonymous exome genetic variants is not associated with childhood or late-life cognitive ability

Human cognitive ability shows consistent, positive associations with fitness components across the life-course. Underlying genetic variation should therefore be depleted by selection, which is not observed. Genetic variation in general cognitive ability (intelligence) could be maintained by a mutation–selection balance, with rare variants contributing to its genetic architecture. This study examines the association between the total number of rare stop-gain/loss, splice and missense exonic variants and cognitive ability in childhood and old age in the same individuals. Exome array data were obtained in the Lothian Birth Cohorts of 1921 and 1936 (combined N = 1596). General cognitive ability was assessed at age 11 years and in late life (79 and 70 years, respectively) and was modelled against the total number of stop-gain/loss, splice, and missense exonic variants, with minor allele frequency less than or equal to 0.01, using linear regression adjusted for age and sex. In both cohorts and in both the childhood and late-life models, there were no significant associations between rare variant burden in the exome and cognitive ability that survived correction for multiple testing. Contrary to our a priori hypothesis, we observed no evidence for an association between the total number of rare exonic variants and either childhood cognitive ability or late-life cognitive ability.